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Relative to the rapid growth of the previous two years, the development speed of commercial vehicles in China has also declined. In the past two years, affected by the national investment of RMB 4 trillion, the sales of commercial vehicles in China have become more and more popular. This has increased the confidence of commercial vehicle companies to a certain extent, and many companies have launched new projects and expanded their production capacity. However, in the process of business expansion, the market growth in demand has suffered, and the problem of overcapacity in commercial vehicles has become increasingly prominent.
On January 12, Li Wei, director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, stated at the 11th China Business Development High-level Forum that investment in recent years has led to highly similar planning industries across the country, resulting in excessive growth in production capacity and new capacity. Constantly formed. Twenty provinces and cities in the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" have made automobiles as a key development industry. He said, “The serious consequence of excess capacity is that the industries in all regions are highly homogenized, vicious competition, and the efficiency of enterprises has fallen sharply. There may even be systemic economic risks and economic crisis.â€
Slower growth in passenger car demand
With respect to passenger cars, with the overall performance of the commercial vehicle industry declining, the passenger car market continues to rejuvenate. The demand maintains a growth rate of more than 5%, and the performance of large-scale enterprises is still outstanding. According to the statistics of 99 bus manufacturers from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in 2012, the production and sales of passenger cars in China were 425,800 and 426,600, an increase of 6.89% and 5.51% respectively.
Although the passenger car market has a good growth rate, compared with the previous two years, the growth rate of the passenger car market is still seriously declining. According to statistics from China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in 2011, the number of passenger car sales was 461,600, an increase of 11.36% year-on-year, and the production and sales rate was 101.16%, which was 1.88 percentage points higher than the same period of the previous year. In 2010, the number of passenger car sales was 414,500, an increase of 27.66% year-on-year. , production and marketing rate of 99.28%.
Zhang Zhiyong, an automotive marketing expert, said in an interview with reporters that the growth of the passenger car market in China has benefited greatly from the market demand for tourist buses. Compared with other categories of "swift" development, the requirements for "not less than 5,000 large and medium passenger cars and not less than 50,000 light passenger cars" are relatively strict, so the bus industry is relatively rational. However, passenger cars also have the challenge of getting into disorder. The main reason is that passenger cars are considered to be the areas in which new energy vehicles are most likely to break through, and the technical threshold for passenger car projects is relatively low, so the launch of new energy passenger car projects around the country is relatively positive.
Zhang Zhiyong said that according to the incomplete statistics of the current production capacity of some enterprises and the local government's capacity planning for new energy buses, the production capacity of new energy buses is expected to reach 70,000 in the next few years. However, in the past two years, the sales of new energy buses in the country have remained around 10,000. It can be predicted that if the investment of new energy buses is allowed to continue, the industry is very likely to face disorderly competition. In addition, many projects are the product of policies that have spawned them. They have been hurriedly launched without stringent arguments, and their future industrialization capabilities and earnings prospects are worrying.
Be wary of overcapacity of trucks
For trucks, it has been declining since 2011. In 2011, the production and sales of trucks were 2,653,800 and 2,701,900, a year-on-year decrease of 7.04% and 4.57%; semi-trailer tractors were sold and sold 244,300 units and 257,600 units, a year-on-year decrease of 32.61% and 27.37%. By the end of 2012, the production and sales of trucks were 2,716,600 and 2,653,400, representing a year-on-year decrease of 1.36% and 1.80%; semi-trailer tractors were sold and produced 184,500 and 190,600 units, a year-on-year decrease of 24.48% and 25.98%.
Zhang Zhiyong stated that the development of commercial vehicles, especially trucks, is much more affected by national policies and the national economy than passenger vehicles. This is because the development of trucks is linked to fixed investment. In the past few years, the central government’s investment in 4 trillion yuan has directly stimulated the demand for commercial vehicles. With the weakening of the policy stimulus effect, the demand for trucks is also declining. However, with the growth of the truck market in the past few years, manufacturers have followed the trend of production capacity.
Yao Wei, a senior commercial vehicle analyst, said in an interview with reporters that heavy trucks are taken as an example. At present, there are about 40 heavy truck manufacturers in China. In addition, JAC, Foton, CNHTC and other companies are launching new heavy truck projects. Ford, Volvo and other multinational car companies are also entering the Chinese market with heavy trucks. If these manufacturers' production capacity is included, the current domestic heavy truck capacity is conservatively estimated to be at least 2 million vehicles. However, China's heavy truck sales this year are only about 630,000. In the golden era of heavy trucks, the sales of heavy trucks reached only one million in 2010. The overcapacity of heavy trucks is very serious.
Yao Wei said that such a huge capacity for heavy-duty trucks will hit a slowdown or even a decline in sales volume, which is undoubtedly a major bearish for the industry. She said that the 60% increase in heavy trucks in China depends on infrastructure construction and it is impossible to continue to grow. The role of the phase-influenced factors of heavy-duty trucks in 2013 will weaken. Coupled with the country's failure to introduce new stimulus policies, heavy truck sales will continue to decline in the next two years.
Experts offer capacity release
Yao Wei said that the government has long foreseen the phenomenon of overcapacity of commercial vehicles. In 2011, it issued the “Regulations for the Management of Commercial Vehicle Manufacturing Enterprises and Product Accessâ€, which further refines the access thresholds for trucks and allows passengers to access the buses. The threshold raises higher requirements. According to the Rules, the annual production capacity of heavy goods vehicles is not less than 10,000, medium-sized goods vehicles are not less than 50,000, light goods vehicles are not less than 100,000, medium and large passenger cars are not less than 5,000, and light passenger cars are not less than five. 10,000 cars.
Yao Wei believes that this has sounded a warning bell for commercial vehicle industries that are keen to expand their production capacity. If companies do not pay attention to the policy of suppressing blind expansion of production capacity, they will not rule out an updated policy in the future.
Zhang Zhiyong believes that the overcapacity in China's commercial vehicle market is a structural excess of lack of rational allocation of resources, that is, the production capacity in the low-end market is rich, while the high-end products are seriously deficient. This is also the reason for the declining demand for commercial vehicles in China. Ford, Volvo and other companies have high-profile entry into the commercial vehicle market in China. This is also a shortcoming for local commercial vehicle manufacturers. In the future, local companies need to adjust their industrial layout in order to adapt to the future commercial vehicle market.
Zhang Zhiyong said that there is still room for growth in the commercial vehicle market in China. Observing the market should use a dynamic vision, and now the general talk of surplus refers to the past 2012. Although sales of commercial vehicles have been declining in the past, from the sales data at the end of 2012, commercial vehicles have achieved positive growth, which is a very good signal.
In December 2012, domestic passenger cars produced and sold 39,700 vehicles and 44,200 vehicles. The output decreased by 0.05% month-on-month, the sales volume increased by 12.69%, the output decreased by 2.11% year-on-year, and the sales volume increased by 12.12%; the production and sales of trucks were 243,200 units and 242,300 units, a month-on-month increase. 4.18% and 5.08%, a year-on-year increase of 10.98% and 12.34%; semi-trailer tractors sold 16,200 units and 17,200 units, a month-on-month increase of 1.38% and 11.53%, an increase of 8.69% and 7.85% respectively. Zhang Zhiyong believes that with the steady growth of the national economy and the continued increase in the government's efforts to put in social currencies, there will undoubtedly be a positive effect on the commercial vehicle market.
Yao Wei said that in 2013, the country’s macroeconomic environment was more complex and full of uncertainty, and the pace of adjustment and optimization of the industrial structure of the bus industry was also accelerating. This will promote bus companies to continuously develop and introduce products that are closer to market demand.
Zhang Zhiyong said that in addition to adjusting the product structure, companies can also release their relatively surplus production capacity by expanding overseas markets. In addition, a diversified sales strategy is also a good choice, and companies may wish to try to develop from a single car sales and sales transport logistics service plan to increase the overall market share.