Titanium dioxide industry warmer

The titanium dioxide industry has a high debt ratio (average asset-liability ratio of listed companies is 47.86%), and the cost of environmental protection is high (in November 2015, the “Titanium Dioxide Powder Unit Product Energy Consumption Limit” was issued) and will be formally adopted on October 1, 2016. After the implementation of the new standard, the total production capacity that is expected to be eliminated will account for about 20% of its annual production volume and the disorderly competition in the market. (There are currently more than 50 titanium dioxide manufacturers in China, of which the largest ones are 15 manufacturers. To meet the national production capacity of 62.39%), the supply-side reform is expected to remove excess production capacity and release the titanium dioxide industry.

Lower prices, basic titanium dioxide ready to go

In 2015, China's titanium dioxide production capacity was 3.52 million tons, and the titanium dioxide industry's operating rate was 67%. The industry's excess production capacity has stopped production of small production capacity. Supply-side reforms are expected to accelerate the elimination of small-capacity production, promote mergers and consolidation of industries, and increase the degree of concentration. At the beginning of 2016, the price of titanium dioxide has dropped to a historical low, less than RMB 10,000 per ton, and many companies have inverted their costs and prices. It is reported that the industry's lowest total cost of titanium dioxide can be achieved 8000 ~ 9000 yuan / ton, the general enterprise's full cost is 10,000 yuan / ton.

Since last December, international giants have started to raise prices. In January, Long Hao also announced a price increase of 300 yuan/ton. At present, titanium dioxide "has low price, low inventory and low operating rate." We expect this titanium dioxide increase to be around 2,000 yuan/ton.

External demand picks up or becomes a potent auxiliary agent for titanium dioxide

It is reported that in 2015, overseas titanium dioxide enterprises shut down production capacity of 410,000 tons, of which Huntsman announced that it shut down its 100,000-ton capacity plant; Tener reduced its 15% capacity, shutting down 60,000 tons; The company shut down its production facilities with a capacity of 150,000 tons; the Crimean titanium dioxide company in Ukraine shut down 100,000 tons, and the reduction in overseas supply is favorable to the export demand this year. With the increase in prices of overseas giants, the spreads at home and abroad have been further expanded, which provides a large space for domestic titanium dioxide market. Coupled with the obvious trend of the recent devaluation of the renminbi, the US dollar continues to strong expectations, and the export demand for titanium dioxide is likely to improve in 2016.

Real estate sales rebound in 2015, hysteresis effect driven titanium dioxide demand upgrade

Titanium dioxide is a very important raw material in the paint production process and has a close relationship with the real estate industry. During the period when the real estate industry took off, titanium dioxide also developed and grew. The close relationship between titanium dioxide and real estate is self-evident.

According to past experience, the increase in the price of titanium dioxide generally lags behind the increase in real estate sales. It is expected that, thanks to the rebound in real estate sales in the past 15 years, the demand for coatings in the paint industry in 16 years may increase to a certain extent, which will benefit the market for titanium dioxide.

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