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What is Freight Volume?
The surge in economic activity has led to a significant increase in the amount of freight that needs to be transported. **Freight volume** is a key indicator that reflects the total quantity of goods—both imports and exports—that move through the transportation sector. In the U.S., nearly every physical product, whether manufactured or sold, relies on the commercial vehicle (CV) market for its movement.
**Why Is Freight Volume Important?**
Understanding freight volume trends is crucial for businesses, regardless of the economic climate. It helps companies anticipate challenges, seize opportunities, and make informed decisions. Shippers are the ones who own or supply the goods, while carriers transport them, and brokers act as intermediaries. The flow of freight among these parties directly affects how each operates. Accurate insights into freight volume allow businesses to plan more effectively and respond proactively to market changes.
A helpful way to visualize supply and demand in the truckload (TL) market is by using the metaphor of a pendulum. When demand outpaces available capacity—such as when there's a shortage of drivers or tractors—the pendulum swings toward the carriers, leading to higher freight rates. Conversely, if supply grows faster than demand, the pendulum shifts toward the shippers, causing rates to drop. This cycle of fluctuation makes aligning long-term business strategies with short-term market shifts a continuous challenge.
**How Is Freight Volume Measured?**
For many companies, internal data can be limited, and collecting broader market insights can be costly. To address this, ACT Research gathers confidential data from a wide range of TL carriers, particularly small and mid-sized operators that handle a large share of freight in North America. The data collected includes:
- Trends in business volume
- Market price movements
- Forecasts for vehicle purchases and sales
ACT’s For-Hire Trucking Index provides a comprehensive view of transportation and CV market trends. Additionally, ACT partners with Cass Information Systems, Inc.—the largest processor of freight billing in the U.S.—to gain deeper insights into current market conditions. ACT uses the **Cass Freight Index®**, which tracks freight volumes and spending, and the **Truckload Linehaul Index**, a pricing indicator, to predict future freight demand.
**What Is ACT Saying Right Now About Freight Volume?**
As of October 2024, freight volumes have remained stable throughout the year, but the year-over-year (y/y) comparison shows a positive trend. The ACT For-Hire Trucking Index averaged **48.8** in the first half of 2024, up from **42.8** in the same period last year. Despite some consumer pressure, real U.S. retail sales have increased by **1.8%** year-to-date, supported by ongoing disinflation. Meanwhile, intermodal and import volumes are rising, contributing modestly to overall surface freight levels. Although private fleet insourcing has reduced some demand in the for-hire market, recent declines in Class 8 tractor sales suggest a slowdown in private fleet expansion.
**Freight Volume Forecasting**
When predicting trends in the truckload and less-than-truckload markets, ACT Research uses two main metrics to gauge industry demand:
- **Cass Freight Index® – Shipments**: Tracks the number of freight shipments moving within North America via Cass Information Systems, which processes over $44 billion in freight transactions annually.
- **ACT Freight Composite Index**: An estimate of total freight hauled by sector, developed by ACT Research.
These metrics provide valuable insights into expected freight volumes over the next 6 to 36 months, helping to balance supply and demand when combined with ACT’s capacity data.
To understand how freight volume may evolve in the coming months and to access detailed forecasts for truckload, LTL, and intermodal markets, visit **ACT’s freight & transportation forecast**.