Automotive industry: economic cooling hot tires in spring

China's automobile tire consumption structure and production structure are significantly different from those in developed countries and the global average. The proportion of heavy-duty trucks and other tires is significantly higher than that of passenger cars.

China's heavy-duty trucks, especially those with heavy-duty radial tires, have the characteristics and rank among the highest in the world. The load-carrying steel radial tire is currently the main source of profit for major domestic tire listed companies. From 2009 to 2011, the sales growth of the all-steel tire industry was 3.66%, 13.25% and 15.58%, respectively. In 2009, the sales of all-steel tires were around 57 million. The proportion of sales of heavy-duty tire industry is: domestic matching 1.5/ domestic replacement 5.5/export 3. The order of profit contribution is replacement, export, and matching.

At present, the industry's production capacity exceeds our forecasted 2009 sales oversupply by nearly 20%, but excess production capacity is reserved for future development. We expect that the actual new production capacity in 2009 and 2010 will be relatively limited.

Although the impulse of expansion of large-scale enterprises will continue, we expect the possibility of large-scale production of new production lines, and more will be the establishment of other production bases through mergers and acquisitions.

It is expected that the gross profit rate of all steel tyres in the second half of 2009 can still be maintained at around 17%, compared with 15% in 2010.

Although the profitability of the tire industry is affected by the fluctuation of natural rubber prices, there is uncertainty about the long-term grasp of the industry. However, in the “outside cold and internal heat” economic situation, the tire industry is expected to continue to grow in 2009, 2010, supply and demand will gradually balance, the cost increase is limited, the good trend, the profit level will remain at a high level, the industry outlook and Not so pessimistic as the market expected, so give the industry "overweight" rating.

The previous market's overly pessimistic outlook on the industry outlook was the main reason why the valuation of tire companies was significantly lower than that of other parts companies. However, according to the analysis, the industry outlook in the next two years is not as pessimistic as the market expected. Therefore, we believe that the valuation of current tire companies is low. It is recommended to pay attention to Fengshen Co., Ltd., Qingdao Double Star, and Tire tires. Judging from the performance elasticity and valuation level, Qingdao Double Star is more attractive. It is predicted that Qingdao Double Star will have EPS0.54 and 0.41 yuan for 09 and 10 years, corresponding to PE11.6 times and 15.1 times. The improvement of the company's performance is significant and can be focused.